To act or not to act: the wise king's trap
by TheVillianStratigest
Summary: A political analysis of the High Sparrow movement, the arrests of two members of the royal family, and King Tommen's ( limited) options on how to deal with this new enemy.
1. Chapter 1

_**Game of thrones: Season 5: Episode 6.**_

 _ **Bowed? Bent? Broken?**_

 _ **A political analysis of the High Sparrow movement, the arrests of Loras and Margery Tyrell, and King Tommen's ( limited) options on how to deal with this new enemy.**_

( Spoilers)

Tywin Lannister's death could not have come at a worse time for his grandson Tommen, who has found himself caught in a political mess amongst false friends and invisible enemies, and desperately needs the sound guidance of a skilled politician.

If you thought things were all happy thoughts in Kingslanding last season, think again. The lower class is as starving as it ever was. The royal class feast with impunity. Winter is coming, the civil war has devastated harvests across the south, which means that the peasant class is going to go hungry come winter. Needless to say, the extravagant House Tyrell and House Lannister are not popular among the smallfolk.

And so they turn to a new thing: religion. More specifically, religious fanaticism.

The Sparrow movement attracts followers left and right, and they all unite themselves under the High Sparrow. How does a corrupt, politically elected, hypocritical noble compare to a man who donates his shoes to 'someone who needed them more', who personally serves soup to other starving people? The Smallfolk's devotion to the High Sparrow is immediate. Alas, Cersei Lannister, Queen Regent/Queen Mother, fails to read the signs, nor has she paid much attention to history.

She assumes that the Sparrow movement is a popular cult to use at her disposal. And so she renounces 300 years of history and reinstates the old Faith Militant.

The results are immediately devastating. The newly armed Sparrows take to the streets of Kingslanding, and wreak havoc on both the Merchant Class, and the Brothel business, culminating when they 'arrest' Loras Tyrell, and imprison him at the Sept of Baelor.

And when Tommen tries to intervene, it's clear they mean business. Whilst Cersei smugly congratulates herself for keeping clean hands, Tommen tries to talk to the High Septon, and is literally stonewalled- by a massive group of armed Faith Militants, guarding the Sept.

This is one of two scenes where Tommen has to choose to react or not react, and his decision to leave without a fight earned some heavy bashing from reviewers. But let's consider his options:

First of all, the Militant has left no doubt, none, that they will fight Tommen's Kingsguard to the death before they submit to his command. And Tommen is surrounded on all fronts, in fact. He has the Sparrows blocking him to his front, and the small-folk are calling him out on his questionable parentage. The last time we were in this kind of a situation, Joffery ordered the execution of a single man amongst a crowd of starving smallfolk, ( who were for the most part, unarmed) and a full scale riot broke out that lead to the deaths of several dozen guards, and the old High Septon. There is no doubt the smallfolk are ready for a fight.

Margery's arrogant reply to Tommen's retreat is surprising, considering how politically intelligent she normally is: had Tommen initiated a fight with the oraganized, armed Sparrows, it's highly doubtful he ever would have made it back to the Red Keep alive, even if by some miracle he reached either the High Sparrow or Ser Loras. And from there, things would have fallen apart. A vicious war between a bereaved Cersei and the Sparrows would have torn the city apart, with no one likely to come out on top of the carnage.

Fortunately, Tommen avoids acting rashly.

But he is thrust even deeper into the woods, when the High Sparrow calls for a 'hearing' for Loras, in which Margery is required to give testimony regarding to the charge of Loras's alleged homosexuality and wanton fornication. ( Worthy of note: A moderate Faith of the Seven considers Homosexuality and Fortification to be a minor sin, one not worth going to court about. The Sparrow's extremist movement, however, disregards this in favor of it's own agenda.)

Margery, of course, denies her brother's charges, but her testimony is undermined by Olyvar. ( I love how Cersei deliberatly presses the High Sparrows hot button of 'All are equal before the gods' by comparing the 'word of a noblewoman to that of a squire'. )

Long story short, Loras is tossed back in prison, with Margery accompanying him this time- for providing false testimony. She is dragged out to a dungeon by the Sparrows, right in front of Olenna, Cersei, Tommen, and his Kingsguard.

As many fans put it: Tommen had his final chance to impose the Crown's power over the faith, by putting a stop to the whole thing- kill or subdue the High Sparrow and his followers in the room, and save his Queen and Goodbrother. Instead, he deliberately stalls the Kingsgaurd from action and watches helplessly as his wife is taken away.

It's not surprising that people have started comparing Tommen to his great Grandfather, Tytos Lannister, 'The Toothless Lion', and Tywin's weak father.

And they again fail to see the big picture.

Before I explore Tommen's options, you have to truly understand just what the Sparrow movement is, and it has it's own historical parallel: The Catholic Church.

Back during Medieval Times, the Catholic Church rose to unprecedented power. The Pope had the power to initiate the infamous Crusades, great military campaigns that rivaled those of the King. Tens of thousands more marched in the name of religion than for the interests of their King. Eventually, within the Holy Roman Empire, the Church's power came to rival with the State, which resulted in some serious conflicts over who had the ultimate authority to rule- the King or the Pope.

The theme is that the Faith, much like it's real world medieval counterpart, has the potential to become a very dangerous enemy to the Crown.

Now let's go to the issue at hand: Tommen's hands are tied at the moment. He is in a position to act later, but now is not the time. Unlike with Episode 4's scenario, he has the definite ability to achieve immediate victory- The High Sparrow and his guards are no match for the armored and trained Kingsguard. But that road has serious consequences later on.

Whether the High Septon lives or dies is irrelevant: The Royal family will have to travel back to the safety of the Red Keep before the crowds react- and they will react, violently, the instant they discover what happened to their leader. If the High Sparrow is killed, the Sparrows and Smallfolk will riot and assault the royal convoy in retaliation, to avenge him. If he is captured, they will assault him all the same, both to free him and to punish the nobles for imprisoning him. Many, many lives will be lost- even if the Royal Family all make it back to the safety of the red keep.

And then what? Chaos is what. You don't need a leader to spread violence and destruction. Most likely, the enraged Sparrows will react in one of two ways:

1) Insurgency. Like the Sons of the Harpy that the Mother of Dragons is facing out east, the Sparrows become an invisible enemy. They hide when its convenient and they strike to weaken Tommen's position. Lets assume they do a repeat of their assault of the Merchant neighborhoods, and leave peoples business's in tatters and most likely commit murder.

Tommen sends out some soldiers to deal with them: the Sparrows lure the guards into a trap and slaughter them, like the Harpey Sons did with Greyworm's patrol. Sooner or later, Tommen's going to stop sending out soldiers to their deaths. Which means he's leaving the entire city to the Sparrows mercy. Sooner or later, the whole city turns against him. And now he's got an uprising on his hands- in his own capitol city. How long before the rest of the Realm decide that Stannis Baratheon, or Daenereys Targaryan, would be better rulers?

2) The more likely option if the Sparrows are not quite as organized as the first option would require: they commit a full scale riot. Considering that these fanatics have no regard to rational thought or logic ( why else would they imprison members of the Great House that's supplying the city with food?), this scenario is actually frighteningly possible. They set neighborhoods on fire. They kill whoever they don't like. The city will burn while it's streets run red with blood. The riot of Season 2 will be nothing compared to this.

And sooner or later, they will assault the gates of the Red Keep. Maybe they break in. Maybe they don't. But the city will collapse into a warzone either way. Again, Tommen's days as king are numbered.

There are times to act. And there are times to delay action, as advised by Niccolo Machiavelli. This was not a time for immediate, drastic action. This situation could not afford Tommen to be rash.

Tywin and Tyrion would have both delayed action, though what they would have done later is up for interpretation, as they never would have allowed this situation to develop in the first place. Cersei has made many political mistakes, arming the Faith Militant is by far, her worst.

Tommen is, of course, a young teenager, who was neglected by both his 'father' Robert, and mother Cersei. All his life, Joffery was in the spotlight. He was supposed to be king, not Tommen. Had Joffery not had the makings of a new Areys, Tommen never would have been King. Tywin only had a limited amount of time to teach him the means of ruling, and understandably, never could have predicted that this situation would occur, especially so soon into Tommen's reign.

Only time will tell how Tommen adjusts to ruling a fractured realm, surrounded by incompetants with their own agendas.

* * *

These are my own thoughts on the matter.


	2. Episode 7

_**Game of Thrones: Season 5, Episode 7.**_

 _ **My political analysis continued:**_

* * *

Even before the wildfire officially hit the Fan for Tommen, he was starting to snap.

Previously, I have explained why for Tommen to react rashly would be a fatal move. Now, I will go into how now is the time to act- at least for a short window.

Finally, we get to see Tommen's thoughts, and they're not pretty. He bounces from wringing his hands in the air about his helplessness, to suddenly declaring that he will use his army and put the Sparrows to the sword ( Even Cersei, who engineered the entire thing, has the sense to tell him that the very people he hopes to rescue would undoubtedly be killed in retaliation).

And then we are treated to a reminder that Tommen is still in fact a child, when he meekly listens to his mother explain that she will burn entire cities to the ground to keep him safe. ( She's learned nothing from Joffery).

I intend to discuss the situation before Cersei's eventual arrest, and how her arrest changes everything.

As of the end of the last episode, both Loras and Margery are imprisoned in the Sept of Baelor, and the High Sparrow is not being diplomatic. Ollenna Tyrell, the Queen of Thorns, attempts to negotiate with the High Sparrow with both the carrot and the stick.

I am going to briefly sum up why her initial offers/threats don't work. She initially offers gold, but the idea of any noble house negotiatingin such a way with rebellious subjects, is ludicrous, unless your name is Tytos. No surprise the High Sparrow sees through that ransom offer, and I suspect that Olenna's real motive was to find out how his mind worked, rather than to actually attempt ransom.

As to withdrawing food supplies, if the High Sparrow hadn't considered that earlier on, he's not going to back down over it now. Don't forget, these are the very same people who blocked Tommen at the steps of the Sept, and proved that they would sooner engage his guards than allow him to enter the Sept without their express permission.

He and his followers are blinded by their interpretation of the faith, and refuse to see reason beyond their narrow minded angle on the world. His reply that ' you are the few, we are the many', comes to prove this, and as he reveals later, he's willing to tear Westeros apart- 'strip it down to purity'- proves that the Faith Militant does not listen to reason and will not, ever, back down voluntarily.

If they considered reason and logic, they never would have gone this far.

While Tommen is wringing his hands, Ollenna is conspiring to undermine the Faith Militant's trial with Littlefinger's help. I imagine Olyvar is about to suffer a fate similar to his predecessor Ros.

Oddly enough, none of them are considering a very important element, ( one that will suddenly occur to Cersei any episode now): There are two ways to determine guilt and innocence: A Legal Trial- in which the Faith will preside over- or a Trial by Combat, which remain the rights of both Margery and Loras.

In my opinion, a legal Trial is out of the question. Loras is being tried for homosexuality- which is true. Margery is being tried for providing false testimony- in which she was caught red handed in ( The circumstances of her arrest are entirely different in the books, but that's another topic).

In a court run by religious fanatics, never count on Justice being done. As we saw with Tyrion's mock trial the previous season, in this universe, if the people in the right positions want you found guilty bad enough, you will be found guilty.

So a trial by combat is the only other option.

Finding a champion is not too difficult. The Tyrells would make sure that their blood had the best chance of coming out victorious. Loras might be his own champion, ( and maybe Margery's) if the Faith allows it, and if he hasn't lost too much of his strength. Littlefinger might also be helpful if/when he decides the Faith are too much of a threat to his personal interests. He might send for a knight from the Vale. And that's not considering Dr Qyburn's FrankenGregor Experiment.

Tommen is right on one aspect: the Faith Militant cannot be tolerated. They have to be stopped now, before they grow to become the problem they were to the Targaryans. But he has to get Margery and Loras out of harm's way first. And the best/only way to do that for sure is to demand a trial by combat for both of them. I don't know who the Faith's champion will be, but I wouldn't be too worried.

So this is how it should go: the Trial by Battle ensues. If Tommen's champion(s) win, then he has his hostages back, and the way is paved for part two: take a large force of soldiers- several hundred or more- all infantry- and surround the Sept of Baelor, and order the High Sparrow's arrest- for terrorizing Kingslanding and defiling the Holy Faith with his extremist views. ( It's critical that the soldiers guard their backs from possible reprisal by the Smallfolk. ) and the Sparrows themselves are an ill-trained fighting force.

Take control of the Sept. Capture the High Sparrow- don't kill him, and don't execute him. Send him to the Wall- he won't be useful to the Watch, but the gesture of mercy and justice will be appreciated in Kingslanding. Then disband the Faith Militant, and resume Maegor's laws forbidding them to take up arms. Sooner or later, the people will accept it. If not, well, Winter is coming. Pretty soon, everyone will have more problems than each other. Come Spring, the whole thing will be part of the half-forgotten past. ( Not taking external forces into account).

Now, if the Faith's champion triumphs, then a contingency plan is essential, for Tommen's soldiers to break through the captors and seize Loras and Margery while they are still out in the open. In fact, Plan B should go into affect the moment their champion dies, while the Faith are distracted. Then, when everyone is safe in the Red Keep, wait out the storm, and then launch the coordinated assault on the Sept as detailed above.

* * *

That's what Tommen's options were before his mother's arrest. But Cersei's arrest changes everything.

For one thing, the High Sparrow is not logical, but he is clever. It's apparent that he knew of Cersei's hidden past all along, and simply played nice while she was handing him everything he needed. Now, he is free to nail her and chalk up his list of imprisoned royal family members to three.

But Cersei's crimes are completely different from the Tyrells. She inserted bastards onto the Iron Throne, born of incest, no less. In keeping them, she helped start a war that resulted in the deaths of thousands. On top of it all, she arranged for her husband Robert to die.

Tommen absolutely cannot allow his mother's crimes to go public, or he'll be off the Throne before Visereys can say 'Golden Crown'. But now his hands are tied- again.

Now he has three hostages to free, not two. And this time, the Faith Militant has the very person they'd been gunning for since day 1. They won't let her go so easily, not without humiliating her first. Which means that even if Margery and Loras are freed, Tommen will have to tolerate the Faith for a while longer, while they take their time with Cersei's trial. Which means that his position will be gradually weakened because he is forced to do nothing, whilst the Faith Militant's strenght only increases drastically, because they are free to hold judgement to the formerly most powerful person in KingsLanding, ( and incidentally, is the greatest sinner of all).

Now, Tommen is powerless once again. Only time will tell the further fates of the three captives and what happens to Kingslanding, now that the political heart has been ripped out of the city, and replaced by the extremist Faith Militant Movement.


End file.
